The Compounding Effect
Unlike traditional software features that deliver a fixed value, AI products compound in value over time:
• More data → better models: User interactions generate training data that improves accuracy
• More users → more feedback: Larger user base produces more quality signals for improvement
• More improvements → more trust: Better quality drives adoption, which drives more data
• More adoption → lower unit cost: Fixed costs are spread across more interactions
This creates a flywheel effect where each cycle reinforces the next. The AI product that’s mediocre at launch can be excellent at month 6 — if the improvement loop is running.
Measuring the Trajectory
Quality improvement rate:
Is task completion rate improving month over month? By how much? A product improving 2–3% per month will be dramatically better in 6 months.
Cost efficiency trend:
Is cost per query decreasing as you optimize? Is cost per resolution improving as the AI handles more complex cases?
Adoption growth rate:
Is usage growing organically? Are users expanding into new use cases without being prompted?
Value per user trend:
Is each user extracting more value over time? Are they using the AI for more tasks, more frequently, with better outcomes?
The trajectory argument: When presenting to leadership, show the trajectory, not just the current state. “Today’s ROI is 1.5x. But quality is improving 3% per month, adoption is growing 10% per month, and cost per query is declining 5% per month. At this trajectory, ROI will be 4x by Q4.” The trajectory justifies continued investment even when current returns are modest.